ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210616 
SPC MCD 210616 
TXZ000-210745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 210616Z - 210745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 99 TO ACCOUNT FOR A LEAST A
SHORT-TERM THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ELEVATED SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
MAINTAIN THESE CELLS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE.
HERE...OUTFLOW HAS NOT SURGED AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT HAS FURTHER
EAST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 99 ACROSS PARTS OF THE MAF AND SJT FORECAST
AREAS.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32049901 31859929 31689968 31740042 31780116 31940178
            32220232 32670269 33200278 33330261 33380150 33220099
            33210019 33329938 33229892 32819878 32409890 32049901 

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