ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210122 
SPC MCD 210122 
TXZ000-210245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 210122Z - 210245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN DEEP S TX...POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. WEAK LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW BACKS TO NWLY/WLY ABOVE 3 KM PER THE 00Z KBRO
SOUNDING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM
COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA TO
POSE A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AFTER 03Z...LIKELY REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   27529964 27729981 27819911 27729848 26829818 26249824
            26139851 26399916 27049955 27529964 

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