ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 202154 
SPC MCD 202154 
OKZ000-TXZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 202154Z - 210000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR ON
A WEAKLY CONVERGENT DRYLINE. SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE OVER THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING NEAR LUBBOCK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY. WITH A PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL GIVEN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. FARTHER
NORTH...CONVECTION NEAR THE RATON MESA IS BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RECENT
ESRL-HRRR RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH 12Z CAMS IN DEPICTING A
CONSOLIDATING CLUSTER SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
WHILE BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35750250 36190227 36440140 36310062 35789997 34659984
            33679980 33070006 32610081 32610160 32820203 33450226
            34440177 35010185 35750250 

NNNN