ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181757 
SPC MCD 181757 
TXZ000-182000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 181757Z - 182000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S F
ACROSS SRN TX AHEAD OF A SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL FAVOR SEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS BOWING STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL THEN DAMAGING WINDS.

A RECENT INCREASE OF STORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. SOME OF THE NRN CELLS HAVE
SINCE BECOME UNDERCUT BUT THE SRN CELL APPROACHING FAR NWRN WEBB
COUNTY APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITSELF VIA ESEWD PROPAGATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THIS CELL MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT IF IT CAN CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AND AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UPSTREAM.

OTHER CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH STILL
OTHERS FORMING OVER MEXICO AND THREATENING THE LOWER RIVER VALLEY
LATER TODAY.

..JEWELL/HART.. 04/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28530043 28629947 28389848 27769706 27419721 27169729
            26379717 25709704 26069872 26329922 27019950 27489979
            27880014 28530043 

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