ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181010 
SPC MCD 181010 
TXZ000-181145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST/HOUSTON METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 181010Z - 181145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER
TX COAST/HOUSTON METRO AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...IT IS NON-ZERO. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN SPACE AN TIME AND A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF FLOODING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL HAD
DEVELOPED THAT FORWARD SPEED OF SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION HAS INCREASED
SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...WITH STRONGER REAR INFLOW EVIDENT ON
RADAR. AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER HGX WSR-88D VWP COULD LEAD TO SOME
MESOVORTEX-LIKE FEATURES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
PRECIP LOADING...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS LOW...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THESE
MESOVORTEX FEATURES WILL REMAIN TRANSIENT AND SHORT-LIVED...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT CONTINUING TO BE FLOODING RAINFALL. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   30279522 30429509 30469499 30379483 30279477 29999475
            29809472 29569476 29479493 29369521 29339559 29369585
            29459609 29619617 29749606 29699572 29809548 29919537
            30069529 30279522 

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