ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180929 
SPC MCD 180929 
TXZ000-181030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 180929Z - 181030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BEFORE THE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. LIMITED SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WW.

DISCUSSION...KDFX RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONE SUPERCELL MOVING EWD
ACROSS KINNEY COUNTY. MRMS MESH OVER 2 INCHES WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED
WITH MORE RECENT SCANS INDICATING HAIL SIZES CLOSER TO ONE INCH.
VELOCITY DATA FROM KDFX SUGGESTS THE STORM HAS BEEN MORE OUTFLOW
DOMINANT WITH A REDUCTION IN THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THIS
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORM
TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE. EVEN WITH THIS
TRANSITION...SOME HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORM MERGERS OCCURRING WITH
DOWNSTREAM WAA-INITIATED ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LIMITED
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29480068 29720047 29810014 29789930 29579891 29259885
            29019891 28909904 28879919 28869952 28899992 29000050
            29480068 

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