ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 162053 
SPC MCD 162053 
TXZ000-162200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 162053Z - 162200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHORT TERM TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF SCNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK WHERE IT
INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT IS LOCATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR
FORT STOCKTON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF SAN ANGELO
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT ARE MOVING ONTO THE COOL
SIDE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AS
THE STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC WARMING. GIVEN CAPPING
ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...NEAR-TERM COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ISOLATED. 

ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WITH DEEPER ASCENT IS ROTATING THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER LOW AND MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ZONE
OF ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE...COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE.

..DIAL/HART.. 04/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30110238 31390186 32790134 32860038 32390016 31090056
            29920150 30110238 

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