ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152351 
SPC MCD 152351 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

VALID 152351Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ASIDE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CO/SOUTHWEST KS. TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...AS 630 PM CDT/2315Z...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/EXTREME
NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...INCLUDING
A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELL NORTHEAST OF DALHART TX WHERE 2.5
INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND 6 PM CDT. WHILE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS SEMI-PREVALENT NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODEST MOISTURE
WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 50S F DEWPOINTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INHIBITION
WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK...WHICH COULD CONDITIONALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SHOULD REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALVES OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A MORE DISCRETE-STORM-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VECTOR. CONSISTENT WITH THESE EXPECTATIONS...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BACKING /SOUTHEASTERLY/ AND STRENGTHENING OF
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM AMARILLO INDICATING AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. EVEN WHILE
THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDITIONALLY MORE
FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING...MODEST CONVERGENCE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE /BASED ON AVAILABLE WSR-88D VWP DATA AND RAP GUIDANCE/
MAY BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE EXTENT/VIGOR OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF TORNADO
WATCH 91 INCLUDING THE TX PANHANDLE.

..GUYER.. 04/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35150292 36500302 37980305 38390255 38390139 37780120
            36610115 35210154 34890209 34840257 35150292 

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