ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152213 
SPC MCD 152213 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 152213Z - 160015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM FAR
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
INCLUDING THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW VICINITIES. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS /AS OF 22Z OR 5PM CDT/
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CU NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE NM/TX
BORDER VICINITY SPANNING ROUGHLY CLOVIS NM TO HOBBS NM. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR A SHARPENING/WESTWARD-FOCUSING PORTION
OF THE DRYLINE. STORM COVERAGE IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LARGER-SCALE FORCING THROUGH
PEAK HEATING...AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. INITIALLY
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID 45-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK
MAY EXIST ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MODESTLY INCREASES COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33810101 33610152 32910203 31880219 31980353 33260329
            34500294 34580097 33810101 

NNNN