ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142029 
SPC MCD 142029 
MSZ000-LAZ000-142200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA TO SCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 142029Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
FROM SCNTRL LA INT SCNTRL MS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED FROM SCNTRL LA...NEWD INTO WCNTRL GA. 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THIS ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

SRN INFLUENCE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE WITH TSTM ACTIVITY MIGRATING ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  FARTHER SOUTH...NRN GULF BASIN
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
MIGRATING NWD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. 
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/SPREADING NORTH ALONG THIS
WEAK WIND SHIFT.  LATEST RADAR ALGORITHMS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS THE
PRIMARY RISK UNTIL AIR MASS IS OVERTURNED.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.

..DARROW/GOSS.. 04/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30599316 31719070 31978918 31138879 30639055 30069257
            30599316 

NNNN