ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122213 
SPC MCD 122213 
TXZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122213Z - 130045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
IMPACT AREAS OF SE TX THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE CHANCE FOR WW ISSUANCE REMAINS
LOW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
70S F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT THE
STORM FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE WSR-88D VWP AT HOUSTON SHOWS 50
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. THIS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   30259467 29819461 29439507 29179587 29449627 29969611
            30439509 30259467 

NNNN