ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112309 
SPC MCD 112309 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LA...FAR S AR...CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...85...

VALID 112309Z - 120015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
84...85...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LA AND MS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THAT WW 84 EXPIRES
AT 00Z...AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
CONTINUED THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THUS FAR...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH WAA INTO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT AND TSTM INITIATION/PERSEVERANCE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG -- THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS /MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT AREAWIDE/.  

SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS
AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS THE SUPERCELL IN WOOD/CAMP/UPSHUR COUNTIES IN E
TX CONTINUES EWD INTO THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH S-CNTRL
OK AND N-CNTRL TX CONTINUES EWD. AS A RESULT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST THE 00Z
EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 84...LIKELY NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A
NEW WW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA AND MS.

..MOSIER/BROYLES.. 04/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30789436 33769319 33748950 30799082 30789436 

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