ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111739 
SPC MCD 111739 
TXZ000-OKZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TEXAS AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 111739Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT SOME
POINT THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY BY 20-21Z...PERHAPS EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...IN RESPONSE
TO INSOLATION...AND THE ONSET OF WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH
OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND A STALLING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

TOWARD AND AFTER 20-21Z...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FOCUSED JUST EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE...NEAR AND NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.  BENEATH AT LEAST MODEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE PROBABLY WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG.  

ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS AROUND 850 MB HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED AND VEERED
TO A PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT...40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
INTENSIFYING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
IMPULSE TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. 
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY IS ONGOING NEAR
THE RED RIVER...PROBABLY ROOTED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPPER FORCING COULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..KERR/GOSS.. 04/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32349774 33399979 33619986 34169809 34419726 33959648
            33749563 33189485 32379518 31379614 31419701 32349774 

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