ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111715 
SPC MCD 111715 
MSZ000-LAZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 111715Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY TO SWRN MS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
LIES WITHIN A WEAKLY DEFINED WARM-CONVEYOR STRUCTURE RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ARKLATEX REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED -- S OF LOCATIONS
ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 0361. NEVERTHELESS...THE
COMBINATION OF LIMITED SFC HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER DEEPENING OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR
OFFERED BY AROUND 40-50 KT OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE
POE VWP WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/ WITH SVR HAIL/WIND. FURTHERMORE...SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT CAPPING IN THE
850-700-MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SHV AND LCH RAOBS DETRACTS
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED...DEEP...ROTATING CONVECTION
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE
PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR LIMITING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND ONLY WEAK
ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
SOME SVR RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 04/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30369258 31089336 31969325 32019120 32318961 31478910
            30868996 30369258 

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