ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101956 
SPC MCD 101956 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 101956Z - 102200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CONVECTION FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY EVOLVE. SHOULD STORMS BE SUSTAINED...SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
FORMING JUST BEFORE NOON AND IS STILL CONTINUING FROM NW TO CNTRL
TX. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEING SLOWED ACROSS
THE TX S PLAINS. AN INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM HAS RECENTLY
COMMENCED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM. BUT WITH
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION BEING HINDERED IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE
OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION...IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF
INSOLATION BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP E/SE. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITHIN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREAT INITIALLY.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34190300 34710208 35030115 35100028 34849990 34589967
            34009962 33180041 32770110 32640179 32740222 33210297
            33550328 33860331 34190300 

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