ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082105 
SPC MCD 082105 
TXZ000-NMZ000-082300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX THROUGH SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082105Z - 082300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN
TX INTO SRN NM AND PRODUCE A COUPLE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR
A WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX WHERE DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 80F WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50F CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
MLCAPE /UP TO 500 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND WEAK
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   29820282 29130315 29510414 30610490 31470602 32170738
            32310500 30450242 29820282 

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