ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071157 
SPC MCD 071157 
NCZ000-071400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071157Z - 071400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
WITH A SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1155Z SHOWS A QLCS EXTENDING FROM 15 MI
SE RWI TO 15 MI SSE CRE AND MOVING NEWD AT 45 KT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE NC COAST HAS ONLY GRADUALLY DESTABILIZED BUT DEWPOINTS
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LINE.  AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED
WITH A WEAKLY BUOYANT AND STRONGLY SHEARED LOW LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THE WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE ANTICIPATED GUSTS...CURRENTLY
THINKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   35057792 36247580 35277534 33717832 35057792 

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