ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070832 
SPC MCD 070832 
FLZ000-071100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 070832Z - 071100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS MAY POSE THREAT FOR STG TO MRGL-SVR
GUSTS...PRIMARILY W OF I-75 ACROSS FL AND N OF PIE.  BRIEF/SMALL
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...BUT ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS FARTHER N AND EARLIER IN SERN AL...AND THIS THREAT IS
VERY MRGL/CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.  AS SUCH...WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER NERN
GULF ALONG WARM-SECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS...LOCATED AT 815Z FROM 
CONFLUENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS QUITE EVIDENT IN SFC STREAMLINE
ANALYSES INCORPORATING WLY/WNWLY FLOW AT OFFSHORE BUOYS AND
LIGHT...SLY/SELY WINDS INLAND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RAP FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETAE OFFSETTING
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO GENERATE MLCAPE 250-500 J/KG NEAR
COAST...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE.  SUBTLE MAX IN
EFFECTIVE SRH IS EVIDENT JUST E OF COAST WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS AOB
5 KT ARE OBSERVED...INDUCING FAVORABLE 0-1-KM SHEAR BENEATH 40-KT
LLJ SAMPLED BY TBW VWP.  HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE EWD.  ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
INLAND EXTENT AS PROGRESSIVELY LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZES
INFLOW LAYER...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 5-8 DEG F COOLER AND DEW POINTS
4-6 DEG LOWER THAN IN MARITIME CONVECTION-GENESIS REGIME.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   27858283 28078281 28218283 28258274 28678264 28888272
            29058278 29128281 29158295 29118306 29298301 29548299
            29428260 29298230 28938213 28658213 28138236 27738270
            27858283 

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