ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 070822 SPC MCD 070822 NCZ000-SCZ000-071045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 070822Z - 071045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS --ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE-- WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH THE NRN FRACTURED SEGMENT NEAR CLT AND A SRN SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM 25 MI NE OF CAE SSWD TO 40 MI S OF AGS. A FRACTURED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER WRN NC EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AT 08Z AND HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME SPATIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS INFILTRATED SRN SC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHEREAS FARTHER N AND E RETARDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS ONLY LED TO LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT --ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA WITH A VORT MAX OVER THE GA/SC VICINITY-- WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WITH COOLING TEMPS TO AOB -19 DEG C AT H5 AND SLIGHT THETA-E GAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACT TO WEAKLY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THINKING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...A RECENTLY MEASURED 44-KT WIND GUST AT KCAE AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER WITH THE MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL LINE. ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 35277618 32987943 33098043 33428108 34398066 35627834 36027722 35857639 35277618 NNNN