ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021242 
SPC MCD 021242 
FLZ000-021415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77...

VALID 021242Z - 021415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA.  IT
APPEARS THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST RISK WILL OCCUR NEAR THE W COAST AS
STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE MOVE INTO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN THE
TRANSITION FROM A PARALLEL STRATIFORM ORIENTATION TSTM BAND TO A
LEAD-STRATIFORM CONFIGURATION ACROSS N FL.  THIS TRANSITION HAS
LIKELY LED TO DELETERIOUS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING IN
PART TO SATURATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES /I.E. POOR LAPSE
RATES/.  DESPITE THESE FACTORS LIMITING CONVECTIVE WIND
POTENTIAL...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
NERN GULF/N FL AND SRN GA VICINITY THIS MORNING.  LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AT
LEAST MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  THE 12Z TBW
RAOB SHOWED STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /65 KT/ AND AMPLE BUOYANCY /1000
J PER KG MUCAPE/ FOR AT LEAST LOW TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS
MORNING.  GIVEN THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE CHARACTER WITH
THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN GULF COMPARED TO THE LEAD-STRATIFORM
CHARACTER OF THE STORMS OVER N FL --RESPONSIBLE FOR NO DAMAGING WIND
REPORTS SO FAR-- CURRENTLY THINKING A RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK FOR
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE W COAST NEAR AND N OF TPA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN.

..SMITH.. 04/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28678269 28618219 28388189 27968224 27858306 28678269 

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