ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020818 
SPC MCD 020818 
FLZ000-GAZ000-021015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 020818Z - 021015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CERTAIN BUT A
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF MESOVORTEX TORNADO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
THE CONVECTIVE LINE PASSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC DURING THE 0730-0800Z TIMEFRAME SHOWS AN
INTENSIFYING QLCS OVER THE NERN GULF.  A NWD RETREAT OF REFLECTIVITY
W OF JAX IMPLIES A LIKELY CONCURRENT INFLUX OF MODESTLY MORE BUOYANT
AIR FROM THE S AS THE EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS
WITH TIME ACROSS N FL.  THE KJAX WIND PROFILE FEATURES STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CORES AND/OR BOWING
SEGMENTS AS THE QLCS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FL BIG BEND COAST AND
AREAS SWD ALONG THE W COAST.  THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS N FL DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSING
MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MESOVORTICES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE WITH ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30108366 30498197 30228125 28878079 28518272 30108366 

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