ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 312030 
SPC MCD 312030 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-312230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 312030Z - 312230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLY FLOW ACROSS SE LA AND SRN
MS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE MOIST
AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG
AS IS ESTIMATED BY MESOCALE ANALYSIS DATA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NORTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NWD TO NEAR JACKSON MS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA ACCORDING TO
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
HELP KEEP MOST OF THE STORMS MULTICELLULAR. DUE TO THE MOIST
AIRMASS...CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO WW 70.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30788859 30558913 30309008 30059120 30269168 30869163
            31709084 31848866 31148840 30788859 

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