ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 311736 
SPC MCD 311736 
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-311900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MO...CNTRL/ERN/SRN IL...FAR SRN
LOWER MI...AND WRN/CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 311736Z - 311900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL
INTO FAR ERN MO AS OF 1730Z. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS TEMPERING
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SO FAR. BUT WITH CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY /CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/...SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD
OCCUR THROUGH 19Z. A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE NOTED ON THE
12Z KILX SOUNDING AS WELL AS RECENT VWPS FROM AREA RADARS SUGGESTS
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA
SHOULD REMAIN LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...AS 0-1 KM WINDS TEND TO VEER SWLY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SRH.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37788953 38539061 39149017 40938879 41548753 41718690
            41918654 41828583 40428591 39228628 38008688 38018735
            37988782 37908807 37538835 37278869 37288926 37788953 

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