ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310137 
SPC MCD 310137 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...FAR NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64...

VALID 310137Z - 310230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NERN OK INTO FAR
SERN KS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
EWD PROGRESSION INTO SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL WITH
ACCOMPANYING LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MAYES COUNTY OK.
CONVECTION FARTHER N INTO SERN KS APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY
STILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES. THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO A
COOLER AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID
60S F. THIS TREND IS ALSO CAPTURED WELL BY RECENT SFC MESOANALYSIS
DATA...FOCUSING THE AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS E-CNTRL OK
AND DECREASING TO THE E. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HRS. VWP DATA FROM KINX AND KSGF INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
OF 350-400 M2/S2 ARE PRESENT OVER THE REGION...SUFFICIENT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IF SFC-BASED PARCELS CAN BE MAINTAINED WITHIN
THE COOLER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR.

..ROGERS.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37949381 37589360 36599367 36149378 36059441 36109534
            36409588 36929597 37709536 38009484 37949381 

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