ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302206 
SPC MCD 302206 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-TEX REGION

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...

VALID 302206Z - 302330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK IS WITH A SUPERCELL
CENTERED ON TITUS COUNTY TX. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION EMANATING OUT OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS IN E TX AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH OF AN MCS
NEAR/WEST OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...ROTATION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH A SUPERCELL CENTERED
ON TITUS COUNTY TX AS OF 22Z. THIS IS PROGRESSING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS
DOWNSTREAM VWP DATA FROM SHV SAMPLED 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. WITH
SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED THIS EVENING /MAINLY E OF
THE SABINE RIVER/...THIS SUPERCELL MAY BECOME LONG-TRACKED WITH
OCCASIONAL TORNADOES /ONE OR MORE OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT/.
WHETHER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEEPEN TO THE S OF WW 60 REMAINS
UNCLEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM AMID RELATIVELY MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE. A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR AN MCS CURRENTLY
FORMING NEAR/W OF THE METROPLEX TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE EWD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32659556 33569472 34059386 34219324 34099262 33629232
            32839249 32189290 31979403 31999459 32219523 32659556 

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