ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 301800 SPC MCD 301800 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301800Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND SERN KS REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS OF 18Z...POSING MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO W TX. BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. GIVEN THIS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ IS GENERALLY PRESENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE KTLX VWP SUGGESTING THE INITIAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 0-1 KM WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE BACKED...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME AROUND 00-02Z. ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 37019830 38049791 38269735 37889642 36979664 35129696 33689744 33229836 33339939 34379923 37019830 NNNN