MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW...WRN AND CNTRL NEBRASKA...ADJACENT NE COLORADO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292332Z - 300130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS /MOSTLY MARGINAL/ ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.  A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VERTICAL SHEAR FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE STRONG WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE
   WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 45+ KT  AROUND
   500 MB.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...LOW-LEVEL  MOISTURE RETURN IS ONLY SUPPORTING GENERALLY WEAK
   MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. 

   THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ACTUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT INITIAL ATTEMPTS
   AT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNDERWAY NORTH AND WEST OF IMPERIAL
   NEB.  PERHAPS AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
   THE NORTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN...FURTHER DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION DOES NOT
   APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH 00-02Z.  ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS
   COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE HAIL AND...PERHAPS...LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS BEFORE
   BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES.

   ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO SPREAD NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
   OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE SOME INCREASE IN STORM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  DESPITE THE
   POSSIBLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE...SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND WEAKER SHEAR FOR STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...SEEM LIKELY TO RESULT IN MORE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL.

   ..KERR/HART.. 03/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41160303 42010287 42280168 41860100 40950055 40370110
               40370233 41160303