ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291717 
SPC MCD 291717 
FLZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 291717Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.

DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PRECEDING WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...ALONG WITH
CLUSTER-RELATED-COLD POOL UPLIFT AS IT NEARS THE COAST...WILL
SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...AS SAMPLED BY 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
/SUPERCELL-ADEQUATE/ SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   27618297 27698156 27298027 25228022 25328115 26528229
            27618297 

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