ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280216 
SPC MCD 280216 
PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-280345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...OHIO AND ADJACENT SE INDIANA/N CNTRL KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56...57...

VALID 280216Z - 280345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
56...57...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
OHIO THROUGH 03-05Z.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWERING ENOUGH THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES
ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...PARTICULARLY TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z...CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR...ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...TO THIS
POINT... THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO...AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES 56 AND 57.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE GENERALLY HELD IN THE
UPPER 40S THROUGH LOWER 50S...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
60S WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS STABILIZATION OF
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS SEEMS
LIKELY TO AT LEAST SUPPRESS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS
WITH LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

RADAR DATA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO HAS SUGGESTED THAT PEAK
CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES ARE IN DECLINE...AND THERE APPEARS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIVE RE-INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING. 
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE COULD MAINTAIN
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO THROUGH
THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME.  AS LONG AS EMBEDDED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
PERSIST...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOMENTUM COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AT LEAST
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 03/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   41938236 42328020 40308163 38838280 38598405 39098488
            39738462 40528409 41938236 

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