ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271952 
SPC MCD 271952 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0278
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL GA/SC AND NERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271952Z - 272145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NRN FL INTO COASTAL GA/SC PER 19Z SFC
OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA ALONG AND TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET GLANCES THIS REGION.
RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW CELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
GA...WHICH HAS RECENTLY ACQUIRED WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS
IT MOVES NEWD. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION
AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER RAP
MESOANALYSIS SEEMS REASONABLE ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE S OF THE BOUNDARY
INTO NERN FL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND
INSTABILITY IS A BIT STRONGER /MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. A
VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH THIS
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW ONGOING/ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO POSE MAINLY A
STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   30948131 30418129 29468101 29198124 29128162 29288235
            29708245 31208239 31608205 32318112 32308085 32128059
            32018074 31328119 30948131 

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