ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261908 
SPC MCD 261908 
SCZ000-GAZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND S-CNTRL INTO COASTAL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261908Z - 262115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ERN GA IN THE VICINITY OF A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THIS AREA...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CIRRUS CLOUDS THAT HAS ALLOWED SFC
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 COMBINED
WITH MODEST SFC HEATING AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
6.5-7.0 DEG C/KM HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
MCD AREA. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VWP ESTIMATES FROM KCLX AND
KCAE SUGGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT A
VEERING WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES TO POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THREAT THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31468130 31438242 31648287 32298263 33188227 33538187
            33568087 32768040 32288040 31778097 31468130 

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