ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 240752 SPC MCD 240752 TXZ000-241015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 240752Z - 241015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/ INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY. DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS... WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON. ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28779929 29549764 30809624 30869541 30779426 29799416 29599425 29449465 29319472 28899530 28519614 28369638 28309644 28069684 28499832 28689911 28779929 NNNN