ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 232317 SPC MCD 232317 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-240145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232317Z - 240145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN KS INTO EXTREME NERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN AR. A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SVR HAIL COULD OCCUR...AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL RETURN MOISTURE E OF A DRYLINE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. AS THE CYCLONE-RELATED SFC LOW COMPLEX ANALYZED OVER N-CNTRL KS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...WITH E-OF-DRYLINE POLEWARD FLUXES OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IN PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR...WITH VWPS AT SGF AND EAX SAMPLING 50-60 KT OF FLOW AROUND 3 KM AGL...MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS /PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS/. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF DEEP MOISTURE -- I.E. PW AROUND 0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA -- AND ANTECEDENT SFC-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING BEING STUNTED BY CIRRUS CANOPIES AND SMOKE PLUMES FROM UPSTREAM FIRES...CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON THE OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES AND MLCINH GROWS. REGARDLESS... SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR AN EVOLVING SVR RISK INTO/THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36669566 37899542 39009520 39379455 39289271 37899306 36649406 36369494 36669566 NNNN