ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 232053 
SPC MCD 232053 
OKZ000-TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 232053Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS PART OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK BETWEEN 23-00Z...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT ALL POSSIBLE AS STORMS
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RAPID-SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED AN
INCREASE IN CU FORMATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWARD INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CU BECOMING
SUSTAINED TO IN VICINITY OF THE TULSA METRO AREA.  THIS CU WAS
FORMING WITHIN A SUSTAINED CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOWERING LFCS AND
WEAKENING INHIBITION WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER AT THIS
TIME...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS...THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY EVENING COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 22-00Z.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36039603 35939527 34929525 34109586 33779627 33559702
            33639729 33929726 34649683 35379655 35929631 36039603 

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