ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231807 
SPC MCD 231807 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NWRN MO / EXTREME NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 231807Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND ISSUED DURING
THE 20-21Z PERIOD.  THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE CONFINED TO
A WEDGE-SHAPED AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE E OF
AN ARCING DRYLINE AND BOUNDED TO THE N BY A STATIONARY FRONT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD
FROM SERN NEB SEWD TO THE GREATER KANSAS CITY AREA.  17Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WITH
AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING E AND SEWD INTO ERN KS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE LOW.  COLD AIR N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.  A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
FEATURES THE MOIST AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ARCING DRYLINE AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 70S CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION.  

AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE 100 KT H5 JET STREAK OVER OK/KS
NOSES TOWARDS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY COINCIDENT WITH A WEAKENING IN
THE CAPPING INVERSION.  ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AROUND
21Z.  STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH THE NERN
EXTENSION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 DEG C OR HIGHER/ WILL FOSTER
STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS OF PARCELS WITH ANY
SUPERCELL RESIDING IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE 22-00Z PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39589574 40199639 40279705 40589732 40799712 41179637
            41319488 41109403 40699358 40089340 39589352 39219381
            39319505 39589574 

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