ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191437 
SPC MCD 191437 
FLZ000-191630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WES-CENTRAL FL COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 191437Z - 191630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
WILL EXIST AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ONSHORE IN THE
1530Z-1630Z /1130 AM-1230 PM EDT/ TIME FRAME. THE OVERALL RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS...CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THE LINE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA IN THE 1500Z-1630Z
TIME FRAME. LATEST RADAR TRENDS FROM KTBW REVEAL TRANSIENT BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH THE LINE AND A REAR-INFLOW JET WITH 50-55 KT WINDS
SAMPLED AT 7000 TO 8000 FT AGL. 

AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INLAND...COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN OVERALL LINE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY WITH
EASTWARD/INLAND EXTENT. PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE APPEAR MODEST AS LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FL. NEVERTHELESS...THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF QLCS TORNADO NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 1730Z.

A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE THREAT.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 03/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   28018315 28178262 28198223 28058188 27538163 26788146
            26398177 26348202 26528232 26708260 27398304 28018315 

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