ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 182047 SPC MCD 182047 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47... VALID 182047Z - 182245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA HAVE RESULTED IN A SWATH OF HAIL REPORTS PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WITHIN A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE YET TO PRODUCE UPDRAFTS AS ROBUST AS THE EARLIER CONVECTION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT STRENGTHS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE INTERACTIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HERE...THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-/NEAR-SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MORE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND A DIMINISHING WIND THREAT. ..MARSH.. 03/18/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31439500 31469509 31579526 31599526 31769540 31849544 32479558 32729562 32759563 32959566 33889530 33959523 33959523 34009381 34009376 34009375 33779144 33208975 33208975 32888973 32888973 32748973 32118973 32088973 32048973 31439500 31439500 NNNN