MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181540Z - 181715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SUPPORT FOR THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS IS A BIT UNCLEAR. 
   CONVECTION MAY BE ALIGNED ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
   BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
   SUGGESTS THAT PEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 850 MB ARE ONLY AROUND
   20-25 KT. 

   A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE
   DEW POINTS IS DESTABILIZING WITH INSOLATION...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY
   CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...NEAR A
   REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...AND SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED
   BY ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. RELATIVELY COOL THERMAL PROFILES
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CONDITIONS
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST.  

   FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EXPANDING...SLOWLY
   EASTWARD PROGRESSING...STORM CLUSTER MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
   NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WOULD SEEM TO DIMINISH.  HEAVY
   RAINFALL MAY BE A MORE PROMINENT THREAT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   OCCASIONALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29869163 30469058 30618900 30408713 29178653 28598824
               28608928 28609072 28609241 29869163