ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171244 
SPC MCD 171244 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-171445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 171244Z - 171445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY THROUGH 15Z DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE
AL/FL COAST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE S OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AS OF 1230Z. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX REVEALS 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.2 DEG C/KM...AND A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE
FROM THE SFC UP TO 890 MB. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT AND
MLCAPE OF 1950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MAINLY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WITHIN THE MCD AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE
WITH NRN EXTENT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 15Z...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30088935 31278893 31848797 31908684 31768600 31468561
            30978541 30428556 30008573 30208607 30328655 29988778
            29728897 30088935 

NNNN