MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170713Z - 170945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
   ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH ELY WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TOP OF A SHARP
   TEMP INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A 30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TX AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION
   ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHICH IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN
   ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NCNTRL TX SUGGEST
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL MAKE STORM
   ROTATION POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
   SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTRL TX ISOLATED WITH
   ONLY ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS INITIATING THROUGH DAYBREAK. CELLS MAY
   BE CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE
   SFC INVERSION.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32679652 32329731 32579834 32959847 33409833 33719811
               33889761 33679642 32679652