ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152329 
SPC MCD 152329 
ILZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IA THROUGH NERN MO AND WCNTRL AND
NCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...

VALID 152329Z - 160100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM WCNTRL THROUGH
CNTRL IL THROUGH ABOUT 0130Z...AFTER WHICH SOME SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH NERN IL.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND NEAR SFC LOW CONTINUES
OVER WCNTRL IL. ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NE OF ST
LOUIS MO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY
MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL
AND NCNTRL IL WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J/KG. SOME INCREASE
IN THE LLJ IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS PROCESS
SHOULD AUGMENT 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SIZE CONTRIBUTING TO PEAK LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 02Z.

..DIAL.. 03/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41628969 41348913 40338883 39648953 39439054 40619061
            41529023 41628969 

NNNN