ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132235 
SPC MCD 132235 
ARZ000-OKZ000-140000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NW AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...

VALID 132235Z - 140000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE HAIL RISK REMAINS IN AND NORTH OF WW 41...BUT
A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AT 2230 UTC...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
NERN OK INTO NW AR...THOUGH STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH
TIME AND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUBSEVERE OVER THE LAST HOUR. MIDLEVEL
FLOW IS WEAKENING AS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS/STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY
BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A NEED TO EXTEND WW 41 BEYOND ITS 00Z EXPIRATION TIME.

..DEAN.. 03/13/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...

LAT...LON   35539380 35119435 34669471 35229511 35389539 35509560
            35499588 35609624 35759632 36139618 36519583 36439500
            36359435 36109394 35889384 35539380 

NNNN