ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 091329 SPC MCD 091329 LAZ000-TXZ000-091530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091329Z - 091530Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN FORM. TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 26109846 28149911 29349797 31789470 31749388 31259324 30499312 29619354 29089485 28439606 27819689 27019723 26319742 25909770 26109846 NNNN