ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090959 
SPC MCD 090959 
TXZ000-091230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 090959Z - 091230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR WATCH POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR
QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL AND ERN TX...WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL TX IS NOW SURGING
NEWD NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX INTO NRN
LA.

WIND PROFILES OVER ERN TX CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT STRONG HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 M2/S2 S OF THE
FRONT. LATEST HGX VWP SHOWS IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 CURRENTLY.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NWD OUT OF THE VCT
AREA...BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF HAIL...SEVERE WINDS OR ROTATION AS
OF 10Z. 

THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPECTED TO OVERTURN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER ROBERTSON COUNTY
TX NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM MAY SEE A
LOCALIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THE STORMS NOW WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA EVENTUALLY ACQUIRE SOME
ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WELL. 

GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE...ANY INCREASE IN STORM
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS COULD WARRANT A WATCH.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31189663 31829601 32169454 31949409 31279370 30709378
            29779446 29429573 29559640 30259674 31189663 

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