ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 090554 SPC MCD 090554 TXZ000-090800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL...DEEP S AND SE TX...COASTAL PLAIN FROM GLS BAY AND HOU AREA SWWD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39... VALID 090554Z - 090800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW FOR ONGOING SVR THREAT AS BAND OF TSTMS SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD. SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER ERN PORTIONS WW AND EWD BEYOND TX COASTAL BEND TO SE TX...AND ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER THAT THREAT BEFORE WW 39 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DIURNAL MCS...AS DETAILED IN PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...HAS MOVED LITTLE ACROSS PARTS OF E AND CENTRAL TX...AND STILL RESIDES FROM NEAR OCH WSWWD TO GILLESPIE COUNTY...WHERE IT INTERSECTS FRESH OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY RELATED TO ONGOING BELT OF CONVECTION OVER WRN PORTIONS WW. LATTER BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN GILLESPIE COUNTY SSWWD OVER WRN FRINGES SAT METRO AREA...JUST E OF I-35 AND COT ACROSS LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES...TO JUST SE LRD AND ADJOINING PARTS OF MEX. OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF POTENTIALLY SVR CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME HAS DECREASED...IN PART DUE TO MERIDIONAL FLOW AND RESULTING MERGERS/OUTFLOW INGESTION ON STORM SCALES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY ACCESS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED INFLOW LONG ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN TO SVR LIMITS...WHETHER WITH GUSTS...HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO RISK FROM TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS. GEN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF SE TX THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS DEEP S TX AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THIS IS PRIMARILY FROM EXPANSIVE REGIME OF NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WAA...BUT ALSO MAY BE AFFECTED ON WRN PORTIONS BY GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OBLIQUELY APCHG AREA OF MIDLEVEL DCVA PRECEDING SEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN MEX. PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED...FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT LEAST...BY MLCAPE INCREASING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TO ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG OVER VCT REGION. THIS WILL BE BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT UPPER WINDS AND 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES. ERN PORTIONS OF WW EWD TO SE TX ALSO WILL RESIDE WITHIN WRN RIM OF BROAD...35-50-KT... SLY/SSELY LLJ THAT WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER W NEAR SAT/MFE CORRIDOR. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS E OF WW. WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... LAT...LON 25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869 26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952 27569950 27599958 27759956 27849923 28999897 30289862 30949857 31179851 31439842 31449745 31439490 29449472 28339637 27969693 27259734 26459725 25999715 NNNN