ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 090326 SPC MCD 090326 TXZ000-090530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39... VALID 090326Z - 090530Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA. THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EVIDENT AS OF 03Z FROM PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN SABA COUNTIES SSWWD ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY FROM EDWARDS-BANDERA COUNTIES...THEN SWD BETWEEN UVA-HDO...AND ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO MEX SW LRD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIST AT SVR LEVELS VARYING LARGELY AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO MOISTURE-RICH INFLOW LAYER TO THEIR SE. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF WW FROM SRN BURNET COUNTY ACROSS NRN GILLESPIE COUNTY. PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR S OF THAT BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MLCINH WITH TIME...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD PERSIST OVER MOST OF WW...WITH LACK OF BOTH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE. NEARLY MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF AMBIENT FLOW ALOFT AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE BUT CELL MERGERS AND HEAVY-PRECIP/CLUSTERED MODES PREDOMINANT. NET EWD SHIFT OF ENTIRE CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST BUT ONLY SLOWLY...DRIVEN BOTH BY COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW PRODUCTION AND ONLY SLIGHTLY OFF-SLY MEAN-WIND VECTORS. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER MEX WSW MFE AND SE-E OF MMMY...BUT CONVECTION GENERATED IN THAT AREA HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN UPON MOVING NEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND INTO HIGH-CINH ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO/CRP RAOBS. ULTIMATELY...MORE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS FARTHER E OF WW AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE SUSTAINED/INTENSE MOISTURE-TRANSPORT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ OVER MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH SEPARATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT... LAT...LON 25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869 26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952 27569950 27689972 28080002 28469970 29339947 30229946 30949857 31179851 31389859 31809802 32039743 29519709 28339637 27969693 27259734 26459725 25999715 NNNN