ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 072021 SPC MCD 072021 TXZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 072021Z - 072145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT STORM COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW. A GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME WW ISSUANCE WILL BE MORE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME WRN OK SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL TX JUST WEST OF SAN ANGELO TO NEAR NEAR SANDERSON IN THE TRANSPECOS REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SAN ANGELO AREA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WHERE DYRLINE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH BACK EDGE OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION STORMS. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STORMS ALONG THERMAL AXIS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES TOWARD EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT 40-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH NWRN MEXICO. MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE DRYLINE. ..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/07/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT... LAT...LON 31270105 31990043 32939986 32839942 32009963 31370004 30980046 31020087 31270105 NNNN