ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 072011 
SPC MCD 072011 
OKZ000-TXZ000-072145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 072011Z - 072145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX. THIS
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE COINCIDENT WITH A
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS OVER WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS CNTRL OK AND N TX. LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY THICKENING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S F...WITH SFC OBS CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER/MORE MOIST THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH
WEAKENING CINH AND MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THROUGH 23Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED.

A NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
DRYLINE...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE E...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF AN INVERSION
LIMITING SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. HOWEVER...AN ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST
RISK...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...MAY JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WRN OK INTO NW TX...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 03/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36919794 35369841 34279862 33669899 33399937 33399949
            33459992 34020001 35319998 36479954 36929904 36969863
            36919794 

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