ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032029 
SPC MCD 032029 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-032300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...THE ARKLAMISS REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 032029Z - 032300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION CROSSING THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INSTANCE
OR TWO OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX -- ENHANCED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN
ASSOCIATED CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK -- IS SUPPORTING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SRN AR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY POCKETS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING
FACILITATING THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS WILL
SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
HYDRODYNAMIC PERTURBATION-PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES ATTENDANT TO
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL OFFSET MEAGER BUOYANCY RELATED TO THE PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 
50S -- TO SUPPORT STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE VERTICALLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS
AROUND -25C TO -18C IN MANY AREAS/ WITH LOW FREEZING-LEVEL
HEIGHTS...HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIALLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL OCCURRING WITH SOME
TSTMS...A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF MLCAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER IN NERN LA...SERN AR...AND
ADJACENT W-CNTRL MS.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33409310 33949267 34339173 34249068 33518954 32908929
            32298998 32249173 32869272 33409310 

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