ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011806 
SPC MCD 011806 
MIZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 011806Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER
BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA IN THE
2100-2300 UTC PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
INDIANA AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO BORDER BY 2000 UTC AS
SHARP/STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATING REGION
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PV APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO A REGION OF STEADY MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INITIAL AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1 IN/HR
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 2000-2100 UTC BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THEREAFTER. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BETWEEN
2200-0000 UTC WHERE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXITING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE MCD AREA...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS BEFORE
DEEPER COLD ADVECTION/NEUTRAL-TO-NEGATIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES ENTER
THE AREA BY 2300-0000 UTC. THE 850-MB FREEZING LINE -- DEPICTED ON
THE MCD IMAGE AT 2000 UTC -- IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DELINIATE THE
REGIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE ALL SNOW FROM A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/SLEET...AND THEREFORE DEFINES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

..CONIGLIO/LEITMAN.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43808450 43968363 44038303 43868241 43638239 43238237
            42848248 42748291 42548364 42418421 42298461 42128498
            41798572 41878620 42568616 43088580 43318548 43808450 

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